The 2008 crop debate

Progressive Hay Grower Editor Darren Olsen

The candidates are all there. Each has certain pros and cons. Each one is more than willing to accept your vote and make the most of what they are given.

If you think I am referring to the 2008 Presidential candidates, you are completely wrong. What I am referring to are the possible crop candidates for your acres in 2008. From what we have seen coming at the close of 2007, weather aside, very few growers saw less per acre in terms of dollars than they did in the previous year. In fact, some farmers have seen their profits double to triple over last year.

This increase in crop prices has many growers looking at 2008, wondering what will be the best use of their acres. Going into 2007, corn was to be ‘the crop’ to plant. But, no one could have foreseen the world-wide wheat shortage, allowing this crop to become the dark horse money winner for the year. From corn to soybeans, alfalfa to cereals, few crops didn’t see an increase in return.

So, where does that leave growers throughout the United States in planning for 2008? For some, few changes will be made as crop rotation depends largely on feed requirements for their animal production. It should be noted, however, that several small farmers are looking at dropping some or all of their animal components and turning their full attention to forages and grains.

Other producers, already planting several hundred acres in a variety of crops have a rather difficult decision to make. Instead of worrying what crops, will be the biggest losers to avoid, it has come down to the opposite decision – which crop can I get the most out of with the acres I have?

In watching and listening to growers and crop prognosticators, there are very few who are saying prices will exceed what happened in 2007. Many feel the markets have hit their high and that 2008 will see a moderating of most commodity prices. They do agree, however, that prices will be higher than historical averages, meaning there will continue to be a greater need for demands to be met. Overall, with ethanol and weather continuing to play a major role in crop production and use, all forages and grains will continue to ride a higher tide of profits than they have experienced in recent years.

Regardless of the crops you decide to work with in 2008, there are three practices most forage experts agree on for the best potential profits:

1. Plant the best varieties for your area
When it comes to making a profit, odds are that the best-producing, highest quality varieties will produce higher profits in the long-run. It becomes the temptation of many producers to find ways to stretch every last dollar out of every acre, but skimping on lesser-quality seed is not the answer. Time-honored adage ‘you get what you pay for’ certainly applies.

2. Take the time to look at weather patterns
Forecasting has come a long way in the past few years. More often than not 90-day weather forecasts are accurate in predicting precipitation and weather trends. While I wouldn’t place my whole faith in any one model or weather source, looking at USDA and other weather forecasts for three to six months ahead has proven helpful to growers in planning crop rotations and to predict weather anomalies. While it has always been part of the fate of farming, do what you can to take the guesswork out of this years weather patterns.

3. Moderation in all things
Most extension and crop experts are still encouraging most farmers and forage producers to keep in mind that it is still best to add some variety to your acres, if possible. For alfalfa growers, rotational crops are still recommended for replacing older stands, and most are still recommending that if you can avoid corn on corn or soy on soy rotations, you will probably see higher overall returns over the next few years. The tried and true farming practices will still keep crops and returns in perspective in the long run.

While I would like to pull out a crystal ball and give you all a true forecast for 2008, that is impossible. All I can say is to stick with what you know, and to look for the best opportunities to make the most out of each acre.

The potential is there for another good year for both production quality and for prices to support the best farming practices you can employ. Don’t be afraid to look at 2008 with a positive outlook. Just choose the forage candidates you feel will work best for you. The rest will come. PD